Expect these wine trends for the new decade

Sunday, January 10, 2010 (SF Chronicle)
Expect these wine trends for the new decade
Jon Bonné


There's not much doubt about what has defined wine culture over the past
10 years. Pinot Noir's debutante moment, the surge of sommeliers, the
critter label. Riesling and pink Champagne and screwcaps. But the fact
that you're quite likely reading this on a computer screen is a giveaway.
The Internet reigns.
What about the next 10 years? The Teens (Tens? Tweens?) will be an era
without excuses. We're in a bold time for wine in America. More wine is
being consumed than ever before - nearly 3 gallons per U.S. adult in 2008,
according to data from the Beverage Information Group.
There's something else: a lot of newly minted wine drinkers who grew up
with wine-drinking parents. Wine marketing expert John Gillespie of Wine
Opinions sees a parallel with the latter round of Boomers, who propelled
wine forward in the 1970s: "Of the 70 million millennials (people born in
the late 20th century) in the United States, there are still something
like 20 million who are not yet 21."
Dizzyingly, we have choices from around the world - and that will continue
even amid a global wine glut. But en route to the era of Chinese Merlot,
here are five themes that I think will define the new decade.
1. Retailers resurgent. There was a time when your local wine merchant was
a top source of buying advice. That time is back. In part, this is the
rise of wine boutiques that curate rather than cast a wide net - whether
it's Ruby Wine or Biondivino in San Francisco, or even California Wine
Merchants in New York - which makes for a shopping experience you can't
get at a big box. Yes, scores will still sell wine and, yes, so will
Costco and Walmart.
But retailers have never been more knowledgeable or less snooty (makes a
big difference); as in-store tastings and a culture of service become more
important, wine shopping is becoming an experience to enjoy, not to rush
through. That doesn't mean online shopping is going anywhere, but its
current limitations (witness Amazon.com's abortive attempts at wine sales)
underscore that buying wine isn't like buying a flat-screen. We want to
see and touch.
2. Sustainability grows teeth. While the wine industry is virtually
choking on eco-buzzwords right now, expect to see real regulation (self-
and bureaucratic) that gives backbone to the claims. Next week the
California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance will unveil a third-party
audit system. Expect it to become something like the Green Building
Council's LEED certification for architecture: a consumer-friendly means
of benchmarking.
Beyond organics and biodynamics, expect water to become the next blazing
issue (We began talking about it awhile ago: sfgate.com/ZJAN). In
California and elsewhere, there won't be enough of it. Because vines need
relatively little compared to, say, spinach, the next question is: How
much less can we be using?
And after a decade of synthetic corks (hopefully left behind in the
Aughts) and screwcaps (here to stay, happily) the next packing revolution
will be in the bottle itself. Not just by using plastic bottles or
bag-in-boxes, but by using lighter and less glass. It's already happening.
3. Brands get serious. With a few exceptions, critter labels and their
x-treme offspring are being shuffled off to history. Their replacements -
attitude labels (Wily Jack, anyone?) - are a mixed bag. On the label, at
least, classy is back; look no further than BevMo's breakout hit Challis
Lane. Returning to that rising tide of millennials, the keyword is
authenticity. They want it. Now more than ever, there are labels under $20
(the new magic price point) that deliver by looking serious but not dull.
4. The rise of pro-am reviewing. Forget blogs. With social media throwing
its weight around (see my thoughts last year on Twitter: sfgate.com/ZJAO)
whose reviews will really move markets?
Journalism has been gnashing out the balance of professional and amateur
realms for years. Wine criticism is headed for the same. Anyone can hand
out an 88 or 92, but if you think your number flood will replace Robert
Parker's, you need to suck back a few more RP94s. Yet the Web is
increasingly providing ways to mesh these realms - notably with sites like
Cellartracker, which I'll be circling back to soon. That's enormously
powerful.
5. Less is more. Less alcohol (the numbers are already leveling off), less
wood flavors, less tinkering. Some of this is a change in taste: more
clear fruit than wood, brighter flavors that go with dinner, wines from
around the world that fit this bill.
But there's another lesson to be drawn from the recession: Simple
winemaking is also less expensive. And all caveats aside about denting the
brand - less expensive means more wine sold.

Jon Bonné is The Chronicle's wine editor.